Tel Aviv, Israel
November 13, 2015
“I would have never believed President Taylor would sell us out.” Prime Minister David Feldman was angry—and desperate.
Yossi Winer, the National Security Adviser, lowered his head. “The Americans are an ocean away. President Taylor has no idea what it is like to be truly threatened, to live surrounded by enemies.”
Also present in Feldman’s office was his Intelligence Adviser, Benjamin Roshal. “Our agents report that the Iranians will renege on the agreement once international trade is normalized. The primary objective for the Iranians was to regain access to the billions of dollars in currency and assets frozen offshore, and the freedom to sell oil openly on international markets. Once their coffers are full again, their nuclear program will be resumed—almost certainly with the aid of Russia.”
“Russia?” The question came from David.
“Yes. As you know, most of the enriched uranium that was manufactured by Iranian scientists was shipped to Russia.”
“Thousands of tons,” Yossi added. “It is no secret that Russia and Iran have been forging a closer relationship.”
David shifted his eyes to Benjamin. “How long?”
“Until they have an atomic bomb?” He shrugged, calculating the numerous variables. “Within 5 years if they have to rebuild their key reactors and resume processing fuel. However, if the Russians or Pakistanis help, it could be much sooner.”
“With enough money, anything is for sale,” Yossi added glumly. “Once the sanctions are lifted, the Iranians will have plenty of money.”
“What are the most likely scenarios?” David asked from behind his desk, leaving his advisers standing.
“Benjamin and I have studied this risk in great detail. When the sanctions are lifted—”
“You think there is no hope that we can convince the West to stall?”
“No, sir,” Benjamin answered. Months ago he had resigned himself to the new reality for Israel—the reality of a nuclear-armed Iran.
David raised a finger and swirled it in a circle aimed at Yossi, his signal to continue. “With a few hundred million dollars, Iran can buy a weapon from many sources. Most likely, from a disgruntled former Russian officer. Possibly from the Ukraine. Or, maybe from the Pakistanis.”
Benjamin nodded, his expression dour. “Our agents believe that Hezbollah might be the eager recipient of such a weapon. Iran would be able to deny they had any role in the deal, and Hezbollah has hundreds of loyal soldiers who could smuggle a bomb into Israel.”
“We need to increase the number of radiation scanners at the border crossings,” David said to neither man in particular, but Yossi took it as an action item.
“You cannot guarantee the survival of Israel with radiation scanners,” Benjamin said.
David cast a piercing gaze upon his trusted advisor. “And what would you have me do? Iran outnumbers our military four to one. They have a capable navy, as well as sophisticated missile systems. Our nuclear arsenal has been the only deterrent we enjoy. And, if your predictions are accurate, that will soon be nullified.”
“If Iran attacks the homeland, the U.S. and NATO allies will rush to our side,” Yossi observed. Israel had always been a very close ally of the U.S. and most European countries. Ironically, Germany had evolved to be one of Israel’s strongest benefactors, second only to the United States. It seemed that modern German governments were still repenting for the horrors wrought by the Nazis.
“And what good will that be if Tel Aviv is a smoking ruin?”
“Perhaps,” Benjamin offered, pressing a finger to his lips, sensing the time was right, “perhaps, we should think proactively rather than reactively.”
David and Yossi both looked at the Intelligence Adviser. Benjamin allowed a moment to pass, ensuring he had their full attention. “The fathers of Israel would never have allowed such a threat to exist. They would have dispatched it before the threat was material.”
The Prime Minister narrowed his eyes. “Are you suggesting a pre-emptive strike?”
“We’ve done it before,” Yossi said. “Air strikes, sabotage. We’ve even destroyed key reactor parts and uranium fuel being readied to ship from ports in France.”
“I’m quite familiar with the Begin Doctrine,” David answered, referring to a fundamental tenet of Israeli foreign policy to use pre-emptive force in self-defense.
Yossi deferred to Benjamin. “David, one simply needs to read the newspaper to understand that Jews are constantly under threat. Persecution of our brothers and sisters is becoming more common. Last week a teenager was knifed to death in Lyon, France, by two immigrants simply because he was Jewish. In London, the Faithful have been advised not to appear in public wearing the kippah for fear of retribution by Muslims. Hezbollah continues to harass our northern border, and Fatah is constantly planning and launching raids across our southern border. And it has only been three weeks since the terrorist attack in Eilat. We know that attack was orchestrated by Hezbollah and financed by Iranian agents.”
The Prime Minister’s shoulders slumped under the great weight of it all. The deadly terrorist attack at the gorgeous Hilton Queen of Sheba hotel in the port city of Eilat was still a fresh wound in Israel. Known for the gorgeous snorkeling and scuba diving nearby in the Red Sea, the Queen of Sheba hotel was packed with tourists, mostly Israelis, on holiday. Six Hezbollah terrorists—three men and three women, posing as couples on vacation—went on a killing rampage. They wandered the halls and lobby of the hotel for over an hour, firing automatic weapons and tossing grenades into the terrified crowds using tactics copied from the Pakistani terrorists who had nearly destroyed the Taj Mahal Palace hotel in Mumbai in 2008.
Eventually, all six terrorists were shot dead by security troops, but not before 137 civilians—including children as young as two years old—were murdered. The nation was still mourning the loss.
“The Middle East has changed much since the 60s and 70s,” David objected. “The Arab Coalition we faced in those days no longer exists. It has been replaced with new alliances—ones that are much stronger. You said yourself that Russia and Iran are developing ties. And what of China?” He shook his head. “China does not have the energy resources she needs to fully modernize. Do you think China will miss an opportunity to ally with our oil-rich enemies?”
Yossi held his hands out at his sides, imploring the Prime Minister to keep an open mind. “David, please. Listen to Benjamin. Hear him out before you make a decision.”
Feldman turned to Benjamin and dipped his chin in a curt nod. “You have a plan?”
“Indeed. We must strike Iran a deathblow before the hard liners acquire even one atomic bomb. We will take advantage of the animosity between the Sunni majority of Saudi Arabia and the Shia clerics who have ruled Iran since 1979.”
For several silent minutes David Feldman considered what his advisers were saying. If Israel did strike first in accord with the Begin Doctrine, there was plenty of precedent for such action. Although the international community as a rule condemned first-strike military actions, the UN seemed to be willing to grant Israel more leeway in dealing with threats to her security.
“For the sake of argument, let’s imagine Israel does attack Iran. What do you suggest is the objective? There are no operational nuclear facilities, are there?” He raised an eyebrow with this last question as he locked eyes with Yossi.
Benjamin cleared his throat. “No. For the moment at least, there are no nuclear programs of any significance underway in Iran. And we must ensure they are never able to develop or purchase such weapons.”
“So you have said. What is it exactly that you suggest I do?”
Benjamin straightened his back and squared his shoulders. “For the sake of God, we must change the map of the Middle East forever. Our enemies must be defeated once and for all.”
Slowly, David Feldman rose from his chair. In silent contemplation he rounded his desk and stood toe to toe with his National Security and Intelligence advisers. “We can do this?”
Yossi and Benjamin both nodded.
“You have a plan?” David asked.
“We do,” Yossi answered. “I suggest we brief you fully, including the general staff.”
“It would be a historic achievement for Israel.” David rubbed his chin as he turned to pace across his office. “It would ensure our security for generations.”
“You would be a national hero,” Benjamin offered.
Feldman stopped, a disturbing thought suddenly coming to mind. “What if the plan fails? We cannot win a protracted battle with Iran. And what of Russia?”
For the first time since the meeting began, Benjamin Roshal offered a smile. “We have the backing of the American military. Russia will not intervene. And if the plan does not go as well as expected, the American war machine will prove to be an invincible ally as we defeat first Iran, then Syria and Iraq. Libya, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territories will be ours for the taking.”
David snorted a disingenuous laugh. “You can’t possibly believe President Taylor will offer military support to Israel in this venture.”
“No,” replied Benjamin, a crafty smirk still plastered across his face. “But the next U.S. President will.”